April 15th, 2012 Outlook

Here is my outlook for tomorrow: At this point, a lot of Wisconsin is in some pretty good shape to see some severe weather including some isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. Illinois is also in some good shape to see some severe weather as well, but Northern Illinois is in the best shape to see severe weather. This threat may also extend into Missouri all the way down into Houston, Texas but at this point, I am highlighting Northern IL and Southern WI as the best states to see severe weather. I won't issue a "serious red alert [high risk]", but this is a serious situation worth watching due to the >60 knots of shear in a favorable environment for storms. The SPC in Norman, Oklahoma has already issued a MODERATE risk for a lot of WI for tomorrow, and I can see that threat extending further south by the next SPC update. Stay tuned, and stay safe. Compared to today's ongoing tornado outbreak, this will not be as bad and it looks like more of a damaging wind threat, but I would still be wary of any watch or warning issued tomorrow, as it could end up getting very nasty.

Tornado Outbreak Likely Today.

I know I haven't posted in nearly 4 years, but this is serious enough to warrant a post. The SPC has issued a high risk area for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma today, wish a tornado outbreak looking increasingly likely. With a ridiculous low, more than enough [>60 knots] shear and instability, all the ingredients for a tornado outbreak are in place. My guess is that the real outbreak will start at around 5pm CDT and will go into the overnight hours, stopping at about 2:00 AM CDT. I will post an outlook for tomorrow's possible severe weather event later.
Where I would start to chase: Norman, Oklahoma at around 3:00PM CDT.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING EVENT. THE WEATHER CHANNEL HAS CANCELLED ALL OTHER SHOWS TODAY TO BEGIN COVERAGE ON THIS POSSIBLY MEGA OUTBREAK. STAY SAFE!
-Epiphany